2014 Could Be the Year of the U.S. Dollar

The United States dollar (USD) recently posted gains against the euro and the yen after minutes from the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were released.
The minutes indicate two major developments: First, the U.S. Federal Reserve is on track to reduce its bond purchase program at a gradual pace. Second, the Fed's outlook for the U.S. economy is positive.

The FOMC minutes were released on Wednesday, January 8th. Earlier that day, the closely-watched National Employment Report from payroll technology firm ADP was also positive as it indicated that the private sector closed 2013 by adding 238,000 jobs in December. Forex traders responded quickly to the news, which caused the USD to rise against the euro and the yen by 0.3 percent.

Quite a few forex market analysts believe that scenarios similar to the one above will be more common in the year ahead. As the world's largest economy recovers from the Great American Recession and the global financial crisis, investing in the USD is expected to be a bullish move for the first half of the year.

USD Consensus for 2014
Trading the greenback is something that just about all forex traders get into in their lifetimes. The USD is part of the currency pairs known as the forex majors, which include the EUR/USD and the USD/JPY. The forecast for the euro and the yen in 2014 is not the brightest. In fact, many analysts believe that both the euro and the yen will perform very poorly from January to June.  The EUR/USD seems to even be on a downtrend from the year 2008, continually slipping lower in price than previous years.

The European Union economies are expected to languish over the next few months. The Bank of Japan is expected to flood the market with cash for the purpose of offsetting the immediate effects of a sales tax increase. The U.S. economy, on the other hand is expected to experience a gradual recovery in terms of employment, real estate and consumer spending.

The consensus on the USD index, which is currently at about 81.14, is that it will reach 85 by December 2014. The euro, however, could drop to $1.27 by the end of the year. This is not the first time that analysts are forecasting a significant fall of the euro, but they seem to be a bit more certain this time around.

Is Trading Forex Like Trading Stocks?

Is Trading Forex Like Trading Stocks?

The quick and simple answer is “no.”

Trading Forex is different from trading stocks in many respects. In fact, it is different in almost every respect.

First of all, when trading Forex, you are trading “pairs,” rather than a single item. You can “pair trade” certain stocks and futures, as well. For example, you can trade corn vs. wheat, BMW vs. Mercedes, gold vs. silver, and many other pairs. But the only way you can trade Forex is in pairs.

The second big difference between trading Forex and stocks is that stocks tend to reverse directions fairly frequently, while Forex pairs tend to trend longer. A currency can be thought of as the economic strength of an entire country distilled into one trading entity. Thus, when you trade the USDCHF, you are considering the economic strength of the USA vs. that of Switzerland. The economy of a country doesn’t generally turn quickly, and neither does Forex. During most trading days, popular Forex pairs will remain within a fixed range. The EURUSD, for example, trades in a range of about 100 pips each day.

A third difference is the margin requirements. In Forex, the margin is typically 50:1. Stocks usually have a maximum margin of 4:1. This difference can be both useful and dangerous – useful because you can control more currency with fewer dollars; and dangerous because you can lose a lot of money very quickly.

There are other important differences, and we’ll discuss them in detail in the course.